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The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

Nate Silver News/Business. Nate Silver. (2012) Author Nate Silver. (CC)

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TOPIC FREQUENCY

Florida 5, America 5, Romney 4, Stephen 3, North Dakota 2, Nate 2, Lindsay Graham 2, United States 2, Dick 1, Megyn 1, Rick Burt 1, Aidle Son 1, Burbank 1, Sheldon Aidle 1, Gingrich 1, Uplike Us 1, Bush 1, Barack Obama 1, Karl Rove 1, Truman 1,
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  Comedy Central    The Daily Show With Jon Stewart    Nate Silver  News/Business. Nate  
   Silver.  (2012) Author Nate Silver. (CC)  

    November 12, 2012
    10:00 - 10:30am PST  

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you tonight. last night eye don't know if you knew this-- we had an election and tonight on this program, the winner of that election, the president of the u.s.a., the united states of arithmetic, nate silver will be joining us ( cheers and applause ) it was a big night last night. the big news, of course, president barack obama not just re-elected but seemingly given fresh batteries. >> we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. ry are and forever will be the united states of america. and together, with your help, and god's grace, we will continue our journey forward. ( laughter ). >> jon: so that's all it took for to you get back in the groove was the fact that you never have to run for president again? ( laughter ) that's all it took? ( cheers and applause ) of course, on the other side, governor mitt romney broke the bad news to his supporters
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before reluctantly being asked to pose for his family's yearly christmas card. ( laughter ). that is a good-looking bunch. it's like they-- the people that came in the frames. across the nation, the people spoke, legalizing gay marriage in maine and maryland. legalizing marijuana in washington state, and colorado-- ( cheers and applause ) gay marriage... nothing. ( laughter ). marijuana... bat ( bleep ) crazy. they also legal ides dancing in that town in "footloose." i probably should have looked that up. wisconsin elected tammy baldwin the first openly lesbian senator. sorry, lindsay graham. yeah. you missed the lindsay graham joke. it was a pretty good one. ( laughter ). perhaps the best news was in
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florida. after months of republican governor rick scott attempting to suppress democratic voter turnout, and attempting to decrease voter discomfort and my favorite introducing a 10-page novelette state ballot to people who couldn't handle a ( bleep ) one-page ballot. florida remains too close to call. what is the good news, you say? the election was decide without them. ( applause ) ( cheers ) for once, florida's cluster ( bleep ) is irrelevant. it's like hearing good news, america. the tumor on your dong is benign. ( laughter ). it's a joke about... come on. we're tired! for the most part, the news naeks acquitted themselves
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nicely with little of the early called controversy and malfunctions of years past, except b.m.n., bull ( bleep ) mountain news, who were caught flat foot bide a historic storm did spite all the evidence just days before, they never saw coming. >> i think mitt romney is going to win the election. >> it just is a momentum. >> i think that mitt romney will win. >> we're going to win by a landslide. >> they're sciewd. you can go through all the scientific gobbledegook you like. i don't believe them. >> jon: this was the historic election between scientific gobbledegook, or as we call it, arithmetic. ( laughter ) and belief, belief wawns going down out a fight which led to what i'm about to show you. now, ( laughter ) my friend, eventually some day i will die, as will you, and everyone you know and love.
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but this segment from fox news election coverage taken at the precise moment their internal research squad announced ohio and the presidency would be awarded to president obama, i believe this foot annual, uplike us, will live forever. >> do you believe ohio has been settled? >> no, i don't and look if-- if we are calling this on the basis of 47% of the vote being in and when 77% is in secretary of state said the-- i got the director of the ohio campaign for romney on the other end of the line refreshing the page every few seconds. >> jon: go on... >> it's going to be a republican victory. this is a historic republican county. ther target is 64. they're at 59 with basically, the early vote counted. it's going to continue to edge up. >> big swatches of butler county, delaware county, and warren county, all of which are republican counties which have big chunks of the vote out. >> is this just math you do as a republican to make yourself feel
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better or is this real? >> jon: did you catch that! did did you catch that right? there? that the the moment. did you record it and tivo it. you can play it back wards and forward all day. i just want to get it straight, karl, very quickly-- are you lying to yourself or to the millions of viewers 'cause you're liein' by the way, mact you do as a republican to make yourself feel better is a much better slogan for fox than the one they have now. ( cheers and applause ) but you know-- delicious. like when truman burbank first suspected the world he'd been living in was not what it seemed, discovery would take a voyage. >> karl rove said that we should figure out what the deal is with this decision desk. the decision desk is in a different place.
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megyn, i will escort you down the steps here. megyn is going to go to the decision desk and interview them about the decision on ohio. >> jon: this was 10 tha that-- then that megyn kelly, in pursuit of something called facts, left the holodeck and entered the world of dunder mifflin. >> what we're saying is the amount of raw vote that's in these counties that's out there still waiting to come in is so large, no matter what the hand full of republican precincts that are still out there, it's just not going to make it. >> 100% certainty. >> 99.95%. >> jon: so you're saying there's a chance. ( laughter ) ( applause ) last night, tragically, there was an avalanche on bull ( bleep ) mountain, ladies and gentlemen, with the blame for it if to their own willful blindness?
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their a supper of misinformation gruel they themselves cooked up and had to at some deep level of cognition know contained far more than of the f.d.a. allowance of bull ( bleep )? >> the white establishment is now the minority. >> i just cannot believe, though, that the majority of americans would believe that incurring more debt is good for our economy, for our children's future, for job creators. >> it's not a traditional america anymore, and there are 50% of the voting public who want stuff. >> i cannot believe that the majority of americans would believe that it's okay not to follow the constitution and not have a budget. >> who is going to give them things? president obama. people feel that they are entitled to things. ( laughter ). ( booing ). >> jon: holy ( bleep ) balls. what an incredible story to tell yourselves. "we would have won if it weren't for the moral failings of the
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the none real america. it's white people judo." fox lost because last night minorities who feel entitled to things, came and took the country away from the self-sufficiency, white medicare retirees and upper class tax-avoidance experts, or as they're also known-- your audience. we'll be right back. ( cheers and applause )
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>> jon: welcome back. last night brought a big storm to ( bleep ) mountain of which the citizens were unrepaired having relied on their internal forecast. they're professionals and after the initial panic over the number decide the party of person responsibility did what is itt does best-- figure out why it wasn't their fault. subject number one, the media. >> the mainstream media favors obama. >> the numbers from the exit polling seemed to mirror or parrot the liberal media. >> when you have the national media working compulse eiffel your behalf it is very difficult to break thiew the noise to the reality. >> jon: sure, and even though the pew research center found the media was being about equally negative tow beating candidates in the run-up to election day, that story itself was reported in... ♪ ♪
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the media. ( laughter ) and don't think god is getting off the hook in this election. >> i do think that the storm threw a monkey wrench in mitt romney's momentum because it disrupted the story line. >> one photo op walking over a 2 xes about 4 and all of a sudden he's handle a storm. >> jon: if only president bush could have been so luck tow have a massive hurricane on his watch he's! oh, right. still the question remains how could a network as in touch with the common man fail to see what was coming? >> dick, what happened? what changed? what. your model compared to the reality? >> well, i'm burr ed in a mudslide. >> jon: hey, i got news for you, buddy. that ain't mud. ( laughter ) ( applause ) but don't blame dick. blame the demographics. >> this is the new america. this isn't your father's america. we are now in a turnout mod they'll is totally different than we've ever had. blacks are now 13% of the vote,
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not 11. latinos are 10, not 8. the previous numbers were the '04 model and i thought things would return to that. they didn't. >> jon: i thought the minorities who vote nod 2008 would have disappeared by now ( laughter ) i thought maybe they would return to their home planets or reach their expiration date, and dissolve into whatever minorities are made of. something. but turns out they still exist in human form. ( laughter ). but the real problem here wasn't the voters' inexplicable decision to be less white. it was the ruthless obama smear machine. >> the obama campaign running a very aggressive early effort to characterize mitt romney as a corporate raider and his time at
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bain capital. >> that he was a vulture, vampire, vulture capitalist. >> jon: it was so unfair! i mean, where did that stuff come from anyway? >> there's a real difference between venture capitalism and vulture capitalism. >> pretty hard to justify rich people figuring out clever legal ways to loot a company. >> do you really believe this company wants to elect a wall street financier. >> there was a steel mill that bain swept in, took that company over. >> bain sometimes behaved in behavior where they looted a couple and left behind 1700 unemployed people. >> jon: damn you, obama! that's coming frommed in your own house. and even the right's beloved super pac designed to do to obama what obama did to romney backfired. remember aidle son, las vegas billionaire? said he's give up to $100
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million to help romney defeat the socialist obama? why did he have to give so much money? because he gave so much to gingrich in the primaries to defeat vulture capitalist romney, the half-hour bain attack ad was produced and distributed by romney sugar daddy sheldon aidle son. it wasn't murder. it was auto erotica asphyxiation. the highlight of fox's total melted down for me-- and there were a lot of highlights. i'm a bit of a connoisseur-- was to see where they ultimately landed. the place they could go to in their own minds to rationalize the utter destruction of bull ( bleep ) mountain. >> it was almost four years of division and class warfare. we need to hope and pray that the president understands now that, that policy is divisive, and that policy is destructive to the future of the united states. >> let's hope a lesson has been
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learned, and he surprises with us some moderation. >> hope is important. >> jon: yes, let this are sounding victory we barack obama be a lesson to the president! if you don't moderate your positions, you may not win
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>> jon: my guest tonight is the founder the "new york times" political blog, please welcome
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back to the program, mr. nate silver. ( cheers and applause ) ♪ ♪ nice to see you again. >> thank you, jon. >> jon: so, obviously, i think with the election results last night, do you want to offer an apology? ( laughter ) >> we missed the north dakota senate race. >> jon: yes, you did! ( laughter ) you said that republican rick burt would win. he lost. >> he lost. >> jon: you better get out of the bbuddy. last night, here is honestly how i felt-- i didn't know obama would win, romney would win, the country would survive either. what i was really concerned about last night was that if your prediction model had been wrong, that it would have been a defeat for arithmetic ( laughter ) and that they would have seized
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upon that to, like, i think then gravity would be up for grabs. >> sure. >> jon: is that how you viewed it, to some extent, dispassionately for math? >> it would have been bad, i think, because for some reason, 538 that came invested with this symbolic power and symbolic power isn't particularly rational, but it became a symbol for people who wh who were believing, let's look at the polls and do impeerical research. >> jon: you were the chick-fill-a-- >> when i went to the democratic convention in charlotte. there was a chick-fill-a -- >> stephen: it's so good. >> it's pretty good. i think you can sample in the other side of stuff, right, and try and come away more informed from it. but what was surprising to me is that before the election you had people who were not just predicting romney will eke it out in ohio. it's republican leaning, et
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cetera. they were saying we'd have a romney landslide in the swings states. and to come to that conclusion means i think you're a little bit out of touch with reality. and you better be right. we get a test. we get a test and it's the good thing about making a prediction or forecast you're called on your-- can i say ( bleep ) on tv? >> jon: not on this show you can't. on this program i believe you can only say ( bleep ). ( laughter ). i believe. if i'm correct. but that is-- what so struck me is i am not particularly versed in statistics, but as i read your blog, it was being used as a totem for the left because it was so positive for obama but the underpinnings of it were these polls statistically would not all have the same margin of error in the same distribution. >> right. >> jon: if it were not statistically provable it was moving in that protection. >> yeah, unless there were some bias in the polls. if anything the polls were a little low on some states for
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obama. and that some of the them underestimated the number of minorities that might turn out, for example, as well. but the polls are a pretty good track record. like in north dakota, they're not perfect, necessarily. but that's -- >> stephen: i don't know how you go outside after that north dakota thing. ( laughter ). do you think-- let me ask you this about the electoral college. is there any way to determine how elections would be changed by a switch from the electoral college to the popular vote? i know strategically things would change a little bit, but do you think outcomes would be demonstrably different? >> i think a little bit, maybe. ironically it almost plays to democrats' benefit where you build a constituent and cobble together the 51% majority instead of having one big group where you have a lot of depth. romney will win south dakota and tennessee and alabama and state like that, by 20 or 25 points. whereas there are all these
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states where democrats won by one or two or three or four our five points and it looks like they may have a bit of an advantage right now. if i were a g.o.p. strategist, i would be terrified by florida, even though it's not officially called yet. the fact that the noncuban-hispanic population is growing so much there and votes democratic like other states. that would horrify me that florida might be a true purple state going forward. >> jon: what i have seen from that side is a justification that this was nothing of their own doing. this was a moral failing of their opponents, that there are now more people in this country who are morally weak and lazy, and that's why they lost, having nothing to do with them. you laugh, but i'm tell you, all day long on b.m.m., it is a constant refrain of, "well, now we've learned. most of this country doesn't want to work for anything."
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>> it's nothat complicated. they did win 48% the vote. and may be you moderate a little bit on immigration and gay marriage and the fiscal conservative stuff will always sell to a certain odd yins. it's hard for democrats to win three terms in a row. they should be able to get their act together. we'll see. four years is a long time. we've had, obviously, shifts back and forth, in the prior four years. i do think if you-- look at how jeb bush -- >> stephen: are you so reasonable. don't you want to stand up and go, "i am nate silver! bow down to me! " ( cheers and applause ) "i am nate silver! lord and god of the allegorrism!" ( cheers and applause ) i want you to come back in six months and let's just talk baseball. >> absolutely. >> jon: that would be awesome. >> thank you, jon.
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>> jon: nate silver. d&!:qq-x r&tsá !ib"0ah)
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>> jon: that's our show. join us tomorrow night at 11:00. here it is your moment of zen. >> hi. i thought obama would be buried in a landslide. instead i've been in a
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